The US dollar tries to grow - 18.5.2015

On Friday American stocks didn't show significant increase. US Dollar Index tried to grow but closed near the lows due to weak macroeconomic data. Industrial Production in April has fallen for 5 consequent months. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index turned out to be far worse-than-expected, dropping to its lowest since last September. Investors are currently expecting the Q2 GDP to rise 2.5%, which is fairly below the last year data - plus 4.6%. Because of negative statistics FRS is unlikely to hike rate until September. To be noted, analysts forecast 3.1% GDP growth in the third quarter and 2.4% surge in 2015. Back in February market participants anticipated economy to advance 3.2% this year. The forecast for Non-Farm Payrolls was also reduced from 243 900 to 252 500. American stocks trade volume was 8% below the weekly average, making 5.7 bln shares. No important macroeconomic data are expected today in the US. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will present economic outlook this week. Besides, April FRS meeting minutes will be released and regional Fed representatives will speak in the middle of the week. We assume that the US dollar will depend on the rate hike forecasts by investors. Large network sellers Wal-Mart and Home Depot will issue earnings reports tomorrow.

No important economic statistics were announced on Friday, so European indices were traded in a narrow range. Today these dynamics are supposed to continue due to the lack of essential news. Unresolved Greek issue and some corporate reports restrain European stocks as well. BHP Billiton shares lost 5% as its affiliated company South32 carried out an unsuccessful trade. Austrian energy company OMV retreated 1.8% after releasing a weak corporate report. German minister of economic affairs Gabriel Sigmar stated that without economic reforms Greece was unlikely to obtain new credits. Due to these factors the euro have been pulling back from its three-month high, recorded on Friday.

Nikkei has expanded today on positive domestic news. Factory Orders in March were twice as good as expected. Nomura Securities investment bank opened a new trust fund, which may amount to ¥50 bln. Dai-ichi Life insurance company is going to raise coupon payments, so its shares gained 10.6%. On Friday Haruhiko Kuroda will speak after Bank of Japan meeting.

Gold futures have been expanding today for 5 consequent trading sessions, renewing the three-month high amid weak American statistics. Precious metals move in the opposite direction to the American dollar. According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long gold, silver and copper volume was increased last weak. Market participants are looking forward to FRS announcements. If Fed representatives are bent towards keeping the current rate, precious metals quotes may advance further.

Copper price remains stable as GFMS agency reported the global production rose 3% in the first quarter due to Congo, Chile and the US. GFMS specialists believe that the current year copper production will also increase 3%. It may result in oversupply, amounting to 400 thousand tons. It is worth mentioning that copper has rallied 20% since the beginning of the year. Chinese companies actively buy copper, since it is used as credit security in the country. According to CFTC, net long copper volume has risen to its strongest since July, 2014.