fb#C-SOYBM Price Forecast | Aggravation of the US-China trade war may lower soybean prices | IFCM Hong Kong

Technical Analysis #C-SOYBM : 2020-12-01

Recommendation for Soybean Meal:

Sell
Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Below 388

Sell Stop

Above 404

Stop Loss

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IndicatorValueSignal
RSI Sell
MACD Sell
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, SOYBM: D1 is correcting down from the high since April 2018. It approached the uptrend support line which must be broken down before opening a position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not exclude a bearish movement if SOYBM falls below the last lower fractal: 388. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss above the last upper fractal: 404. After opening a pending order, we can move the stop loss following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal maximum. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (404) without activating the order (388), it is recommended to delete the order: the market sustains internal changes that have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

US soybean exports last week were the lowest in the current marketing year. Will the SOYBM quotes decline?

USDA reported that US soybean exports last week totaled 768,000 tons. This is the minimum for the current marketing year. China accounted for over 75% of this volume. Meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have announced retaliatory measures if US tariffs on Chinese goods rise. They are symmetrical and include a 25% increase in tariffs on American goods worth $50 billion. Former US President Donald Trump had previously announced a de facto ban on Chinese imports of the same amount of $50 billion. American soy is on the list of goods that China can stop importing. The PRC announced that it would impose its duties as soon as the United States did the same. In addition, some market participants fear an excess of soybean meal if American soybean oil exports to India rise. Earlier, India cut the import tariff on soybean oil by 10% to 27.5%.

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