fbUSDCNH Forecast | Investors fear deterioration in US-China relations | IFCM Hong Kong

Technical Analysis USDCNH : 2021-01-25

Recommendation for USD/CNH:

Strong SellSellNeutralBuyStrong Buy

Above 6,51

Buy Stop

Below 6,4

Stop Loss

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Senior Analytical Expert
Articles 1688
MA(200) Neutral
Fractals Neutral
Parabolic SAR Buy
Bollinger Bands Neutral

Chart Analysis

IFC Markets Tech Analysis

On the daily timeframe, USDCNH: D1 broke the downtrend resistance line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish move if USDCNH rises above the last upper fractal: 6.51. This level can be used as an entry point. We can place a stop loss below the minimum since June 2018, the last two lower fractals and the Parabolic signal: 6.4. After opening a pending order, we move the stop loss to the next fractal low following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. After the transaction, the most risk-averse traders can switch to the four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of the bias. If the price meets the stop loss (6.4) without activating the order (6.51), it is recommended to delete the order: some internal changes in the market have not been taken into account.

Fundamental Analysis

There has been a slight aggravation of China-USA relations in recent days. Will the USDCNH quotes grow ?

The upward movement signifies the weakening of the renminbi against the greenback. For the first time in 40 years, a representative of Taiwan has been officially invited to Joe Biden's inauguration. Twitter has blocked the account of the PRC Embassy in the United States. In turn, the Chinese Foreign Ministry imposed sanctions on 28 high-ranking Americans, which are mainly members of the administration of former US President Donald Trump, including US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, President Trump's National Security Assistant Robert O'Brien, and Trade Advisor Peter Navarro. In addition to political risks, the spread of the "British" strain of coronavirus in China may become a negative factor for the yuan. So far, however, the number of new cases is relatively small at about 200 people a day. Nevertheless, the PRC government is considering the possibility of introducing a number of restrictions due to the worsening of the epidemiological situation. No significant economic statistics are expected this week in China.

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