Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Risks Drive Market Sentiment - 30.3.2026

• AUD/USD caught between a hawkish RBA (0.25% hike) and USD strength. Tuesday’s China PMI will be the primary directional driver.
• EUR/GBP: Trading in a tight range as both the ECB and BoE face energy-linked inflation. Tuesday’s Eurozone CPI is the next major catalyst.
• EUR/USD: Failed to hold 1.1600. Currently testing support at 1.1510–1.1530; a break lower opens the door to 1.1450.
• USD/JPY: Trending higher near 159.41. While BoJ minutes hint at future tightening, geopolitical demand continues to support the dollar.

Dow and Nasdaq (down 13% from highs) are firmly in correction territory. S&P 500 hit a 7-month low of 6,368.85 on Friday. ASX 200 & GB 100 are outperforming global peers slightly due to heavy weighting in energy and mining, which benefit from high commodity prices. Nikkei 225 dropped nearly 4% last week as rising oil prices increase pressure on the BoJ to hike rates.

Brent Crude settled at $106.25. Resistance holds at $107.40–$110.00, while the $100 mark serves as a psychological floor. WTI closely tracking Brent. Prices remain sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz situation, which threatens to squeeze global margins further.

Bitcoin failed to sustain $70,000, shifting the short-term bias to neutral/downside. Key support sits at $63,810. Ethereum technically weakened by ETF outflows. Needs a daily close above $2,200 to improve the outlook; currently supported at $2,100.