United States ADP Nonfarm Employment is out today - 5.4.2023

On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell for the 2nd day in a row and updated a 2-month low. Investors reacted unexpectedly strongly to the weak Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Indeed, the number of new jobs has fallen to the lowest level since May 2021 (9.931 million). However, this was in February, and this week more recent data for March will be released on the US labor market. In particular, the ADP Nonfarm Employment report will be published today. It will help clarify the forecast of official data on the labor market, which will be released on Friday. In addition, the trade balance data for February and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March may affect the dynamics of the US dollar. Note that against the backdrop of the weakening of the US currency, the British pound has updated a 10-month high and the euro - a 2-month high. This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the rate immediately by 0.5% - up to 5.25%. This caused a noticeable strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. Germany Factory Orders declined in February (-5.7% y/y) less than expected. This supported the euro this morning.

Bitcoin quotes have been trading in a neutral range slightly above $28,000 for the 3rd week. This morning it rises in price for the 2nd day in a row. Ethereum has risen in price by almost 6% and reached a maximum in 7 months. This happened in anticipation of the Ethereum Shanghai hard fork (upgrade blockchain protocol), which will take place on April 12. Dogecoin soared 27% after Elon Musk changed his Twitter logo from a bird to a dog. Cryptocurrency Shiba Inu has risen in price by 5%.

Yesterday, US stock indices fell due to increased risks of an economic recession. In addition to weak data on the labor market JOLTs job openings, this was facilitated by the reduction of Factory Orders in February by -0.7% m/m. Major bank JPMorgan did not rule out the continued difficulties in the US financial sector. Against this background, shares of regional banks Zions Bancorporation, First Republic Bank and Comerica fell by about 5%, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo by 2.1% and 2.4%. Baird cut its recommendations on Caterpillar (-5.4%) and United Rentals (-7.7%) shares due to a possible reduction in US construction volumes amid the banking crisis. The growth leader yesterday was the sectoral index S&P 500 Utilities (+0.5%). This morning, futures for US stock indices are lower, as preliminary forecasts of US economic data do not look too good.

On Tuesday, oil quotes rose for the 2nd day in a row. On April 2, OPEC+ decided on an additional 1.66 million bpd of voluntary production cuts. This brings the total reduction to 3.66 million bpd. Since OPEC + has already reduced production since November last year by 2 million bpd. For now, the current cut of 1.66 million bpd is expected to run from May until the end of 2023. The main purpose of these events is to increase world oil prices in order to ensure the flow of investment in the oil industry. In February of this year, Haitham Al-Ghais, head of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, expressed an opinion on the need for annual investments in world oil production in the amount of $500 billion until 2045. This morning oil continues to rise in price. The American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected drop in U.S. oil inventories for the week by 4.35 million barrels. Note that bad economic data may cause a correction in oil prices.