US labor market data from ADP to be published today - 30.3.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index fell sharply. There was no particular negative in the USA, but there was a positive in Europe and Japan. This caused a strong strengthening of the euro and the yen. Russia has announced a reduction in military activity in Ukraine. Investors believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) may increase the rate (0%) immediately after the end of the Ukrainian conflict due to record inflation in the EU. The preliminary Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be published today. It will help clarify the forecast for the future growth of the ECB rate. In February, inflation in Germany amounted to 5.1% y/y. Its growth is expected to continue, which contributes to the strengthening of the euro today. The strengthening of the yen was supported by yesterday's statements by the Japanese authorities that a too weak exchange rate could damage the economy. Investors have decided that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may raise the rate (-0.1%) if USDJPY exceeds the psychological level of 130. Weak Japan Retail Sales for February (-0.8% y/y) came out this morning. This increased the likelihood of a BOJ rate hike and the yen continued to appreciate.

Bitcoin stopped growing yesterday. For 2 weeks, it went up by about $10 thousand (+27%). Players are trying to assess the impact of a reduction in political tensions in Europe amid signs of the Ukrainian conflict fading. In general, the growing trend continues, as more and more countries legalize the cryptocurrency market.

Yesterday, US stock indices continued to rise. This was facilitated by signs of a weakening of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, as well as a possible decrease in world energy prices. Another positive was the signs of economic growth. The number of vacancies in the US labor market (United States JOLTS Job Openings) in February approached an all-time high of 11.27 million CB Consumer Confidence (107.2) in March was better than expected. Today in the US there will be important data on the labor market ADP National Employment Report for March. They will help refine the forecast for the official Non Farm Payrolls figure, which will be released on Friday, April 1. In addition, the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 4th quarter of 2021 will be released today in the 3rd reading. The forecast for ADP (+238 thousand) is negative, so futures for US stock indices are now trading down.

On Tuesday, oil quotes declined markedly during trading, but still rose at the end of the day. WTI fell below $100 per barrel. Now this is a strong support level, and US oil is trading higher. At first, quotes fell due to peace-loving statements by Russia about the reduction of military activity in Ukraine. Recall that Russia is in 2nd place in terms of oil exports, in 1st place - Saudi Arabia and in 3rd place - Iraq. Next come Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. In addition, investors reacted to the new lockdown in China due to the coronavirus outbreak. Yesterday's negative on the oil market did not last very long. A positive factor for the quotes was the announcement of the American Petroleum Institute on the reduction of oil reserves in the US for the week by 3 million barrels. In addition, investors doubt that OPEC + will increase production beyond the planned level of +400 thousand barrels per day at the next meeting on Thursday, March 31.