The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place today - 3.11.2021

On Tuesday, the US dollar index rose slightly. Investors expect the US Federal Reserve to announce the start of a cut in monthly government and mortgage bond buybacks at its meeting today. Now it is $ 120 billion. Most likely, the Fed will announce a gradual reduction of this volume by $ 15 billion per month. A rate change of 0.25% is not expected at today's meeting. According to participants in the foreign exchange market, it may be raised for the first time next summer. There was no important economic data available yesterday in the US. We can note a noticeable collapse of the Australian dollar due to a decrease in the likelihood of rate hikes next year. Reserve Bank of Australia at its yesterday's meeting not only kept the rate of 0.1%, but also unexpectedly refused to support the consistently low yield of 3-year government bonds (targeting) 0.1% per annum. The New Zealand dollar also fell yesterday, but there was no particular economic negative in New Zealand. On the contrary, today there was published data on a decrease in unemployment in the 3rd quarter to 3.4%. This is at least since the 4th quarter of 2007. In the euro area today there are unemployment data for September and the ECB head Christine Lagarde is expected to speak.

Yesterday American stock indices rose and once again renewed their all-time highs. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq did it for the 4th time in a row, and the Dow for the 3rd time. Investors believe that a possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy will be moderate at today's meeting. High global inflation increases corporate revenue. Refinitiv has raised its forecast for the growth of all cumulative, quarterly earnings of the S&P 500 to + 40.2%. To date, about 65% of companies have reported. Shares of payment systems Visa (-1.6%), Mastercard (-1.7%), American Express (-0.6%) fell in price against the background of rising bitcoin quotes. In addition to the Fed meeting, the dynamics of American stock indices may be affected by today's labor market data for October from the independent agency ADP. They will help clarify the forecast for United States Nonfarm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday. In the meantime, investors expect a sharp cut in new jobs. This is a negative factor and futures for US stock indices are now declining. Industrial orders data and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are also due today. In addition, the quarterly reports of Qualcomm, CVS Health and other American companies will be released.

Today world oil prices have been declining for the second day in a row. The independent American Petroleum Institute announced an increase in US oil reserves for the week by 3.6 million barrels. The growth of stocks has been happening for the 6th week in a row. In addition, US President Joe Biden at the climate summit in Glasgow (UN climate change conference) accused OPEC + of unwillingness to increase oil supplies to the world market, which leads to higher prices. Recall that the next OPEC + meeting will be held tomorrow, November 4. Some investors do not exclude that oil-producing countries may slightly increase the monthly limit for the increase in production of 400 thousand barrels per day at the beginning of next year. Wheat rises in price against the background of forecasts of a decrease in its harvest in the United States, as well as in European countries - France, Romania and Hungary. In general, quotes for all grain and soybeans may rise due to higher world prices for fertilizers and fuel for agricultural machinery.