Markets advance ahead of US presidential election - 8.11.2016

US stocks rise as FBI announces won’t pursue charges against Hillary Clinton

US stocks rallied on Monday after FBI Director James Comey announced the bureau won’t pursue charges against Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. The dollar rebounded as FBI said no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Hillary Clinton in the investigation of her emails.The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, closed 0.86% higher at 97.742. The Dow Jones industrial average closed 2.1% higher at 18260.08, led by JP Morgan and UnitedHealth shares. The S&P 500 gained 2.2% settling at 2131.52 with all sectors closing higher.

The Nasdaq index jumped 2.4% to 5166.17. The S&P 500 snapped its nine-day losing streak, the longest since 1980, which resulted in a drop just over 3% in the broad market index. The rebound was led by financials stocks, up 2.6%. Investors are clearly pricing higher probability for a Clinton victory. Hillary Clinton led Trump by 2 percentage points on Monday, according the Real Clear Politics Polling Average, down from more than 7 percentage points two weeks ago. However the uncertainty about the election outcome still weighs on markets which will likely limit further upside until the winner emerges. The US presidential election will take place today. Today at 12:00 CET October National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Index will be published. The tentative outlook is positive for dollar. At 16:00 CET October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary results will be released, the outlook is positive.

SP500

European stocks rise as Clinton’s odds for victory seen higher

European stocks joined the global rally on Monday after the FBI announced on Sunday no criminal charges will be brought against Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton as the review of a new batch of her emails revealed no new findings. Both the euro and British Pound fell against the dollar, giving up part of gains from the rebound of the previous week as dollar weakened following FBI's announcement it reopened the case into Clinton’s improper usage of unsecured private email servers. The Stoxx Europe 600 index jumped 1.53%. The DAX 30 overperformed gaining 1.9% to 10456.95. France’s CAC 40 added 1.9% and UK’s FTSE 100 closed 1.7% higher at 6806.90 helped by a 4.6% jump in HSBC Holdings shares after the bank posted better than expected third-quarter earnings.

European stocks rallied despite weaker than expected data. Manufacturing orders in Germany fell 0.6% in September while a small gain was expected. Euro-zone retail sales fell 0.2% in September over month while rising 1.1% from the previous year when an 0.3% monthly fall and a 1.3% rise on annual basis were expected. Today German Industrial Production for September came in lower than expected at 1.2% over year, declining from 2.4% in the previous month. At the same time the September Trade Balance rose more than expected to 24.4 billion from 19.9 billion in August with the Current Account surplus rising to 24.2 billion from 17.4. Today at 10:30 CET September Industrial and Manufacturing Productions will be released in UK, the outlook is positive for Pound.

Asian stocks gain on Clinton victory anticipation

Asian stocks are rising today ahead of US presidential election after a relief rally on Monday on FBI decision not to bring any charges against the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton after her emails review. Investors are viewing Clinton as the likely winner of the US presidential elections and are wary of higher uncertainty for markets that may ensue a possible victory of the Republican candidate Trump based on billionaire’s support for more protectionist policies. The Shanghai Composite Index is 0.5% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is up 0.4% despite bigger-than-expected declines in Chinese imports and exports and a smaller-than-forecast trade balance in October. Nikkei ended little changed slipping 0.03% to 17171.38 today as yen retraced after Monday’s decline against the dollar. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index inched up 0.2% with Australian dollar weakening against the dollar.

Oil prices steady ahead of US election

Oil futures prices are steady today after rising on Monday on supply worries following an earthquake late Sunday at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Prices were supported also as US Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s chances got a boost after FBI announced on Sunday no charges will be brought against her for the usage of private email servers. Clinton’s victory is viewed as more bullish for oil market as she has expressed support for clean energy and may support ending billions of dollars worth of subsidies for oil and gas companies, which may result in lower US output. January Brent crude rose 1.3% to $46.15 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange on Monday.