Trump to address Congress - 28.2.2017

Dow posts twelfth straight record high

US stocks closed higher on Monday as investors await President Trump’s speech. The dollar strengthened slightly ahead of the speech which is expected to shed more light on Trump’s policy plans. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, inched 0.03% higher at 101.158. The Dow Jones average rose less than 0.1% to 20837.44, the twelfth straight record high led by Caterpillar and Chevron shares. S&P 500 gained 0.1% settling at a record 2369.73, led by energy and financials stocks. The Nasdaq composite index closed 0.3% higher at 5861.90.

Treasury yields rose on Monday as Fed’s Kaplan said next rate hike will come ‘in the near future’. The broad market rally that started since presidential election continues as investors await President Trump’s address to Congress today. Trump is expected to talk about tax reform and health-care system, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump’s election pledges to cut taxes and initiate big infrastructure spending projects provided support to broad market rally and details about his promised tax plan will further boost the market. Economic data were weak on Monday: durable goods orders excluding transportation and capital goods orders, nondefense excluding planes, fell in January while smaller growth was expected. Pending home sales also slumped in January due to low inventory. Today at 14:30 CET second reading of fourth quarter GDP will be released, the outlook is positive for dollar. At the same time January Wholesale Inventories and Advance Goods Trade Balance will come out. At 15:00 CET S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index for December will be published, the outlook is negative. At 16:00 CET Conference Board Consumer Confidence index for February will be released, the tentative outlook is negative. At 21:00 CET Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak about US economic outlook in Philadelphia. And at 21:30 CET Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Williams will speak in Santa Cruz, California.

DJI

European stocks inch lower

European stocks edged lower on Monday led by Deutsche Borse and PostNL. The euro inched higher against the dollar, the British Pound weakened against the greenback on reports of a possible second independence referendum for Scotland after Article 50 for EU exit procedure is triggered by UK. The Stoxx Europe 600 index slipped 0.1%. The DAX 30 rose 0.2% to close at 11822.67. France’s CAC 40 ended roughly unchanged and UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.1% settling at 7253.00.

Deutsche Borse and London Stock Exchange shares fell by 3.8% and 1.1% respectively on a setback to their planned megamerger: the LSE said late Sunday it wouldn’t sell its majority-owned fixed-income trading platform in Italy due to antitrust concerns over the deal. Shares of Dutch mail company PostNL plunged 7.4% on earnings miss. In economic news, economic sentiment indicators improved in euro-zone in February. The fourth quarter French GDP at 1.2% annual rate released today was higher than the steady expected growth at 1.1%.

Asian stocks mixed ahead of Trump speech

Asian stocks are mixed today as investors await President Trump’s speech for details on his tax and trade policies. Trump had proclaimed earlier his support for tax policies with preferential treatment for domestic exporters over importers. Any details in line with earlier proclaimed protectionist policy stance will hurt Asian economies dependent on exporting to US markets. Nikkei ended 0.1% higher at 19118.99 paring earlier gains as yen strengthened against the dollar and Japan recorded its first drop in industrial output in six months in January on lower car production and exports to China. Chinese stocks are up: the Shanghai Composite Index is gaining 0.3% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 0.6% lower. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index is 0.2% lower with the Australian dollar edging higher against the dollar.

Oil prices edge lower

Oil futures prices are pulling back today after edging higher on Monday as traders considered high OPEC compliance with the output cut deal to curb output by about 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1. April Brent crude added 0.1% to $55.93 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange on Monday.