市場機會 : 星期 26-01-2026 - 30-01-2026

Oil Price: Long Term Sentiment is Bearish

There is too much oil supply and rising inventories, but on the other hand, extra price is built into oil because traders are worried about Iran supply disruption, even if it hasn't happened yet. So we are expecting a volatile week ahead, especially with the EIA Crude Oil Stocks report due on Wednesday 28 January.

• Long term sentiment is bearish. US policy is leaning toward keeping energy prices low and there are signs that storage tanks are filling up.

The EIA inventory report is the main event next week. Earlier in January, U.S. crude inventories jumped by about 3.4 million barrels. If upcoming report shows another big build in crude oil, it would push WTI prices down toward the $54.80 support area.

Another factor weighing on the market is - oil for delivery later is priced higher than oil available right now. This makes it profitable to store oil and sell later. That behavior can actually make inventories grow even faster in the weeks ahead.

Oil Technicals

Crude has been trending lower since late 2025, trading inside a descending channel. While there have been brief price spikes but it hasn't changed the long term picture of surplus supply. WTI is hovering around $59, with resistance near $61 and strong support closer to $56. Same with Brent with just at higher price levels.

Major Banks Outlook for Early 2026

• Goldman Sachs expects a large supply surplus and sees Brent averaging around $56 this year, arguing that prices will need to fall to clear excess oil from storage.
• Morgan Stanley has also cut its forecasts, saying surplus could peak later in the year.
• J.P. Morgan adds that the U.S. administration appears comfortable with lower oil prices as a way to fight inflation and is unlikely to step in unless prices fall sharply, possibly below $50 for WTI.

Iran accounts for roughly 4% of global supply, and any major disruption there could send prices higher. OPEC+ said it will keep production steady through the first quarter, but if prices keep sliding, deeper cuts could be announced to stabilize the market.

Bottom Line

WTI oil has been struggling to get past the 60- 61 price range, and the market is likely to reject that level again next week. If the EIA report confirms another inventory build and prices stay below key moving averages (20MA and 50MA), short position is a go.