每週熱門領漲/跌者

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has slightly decreased. After difficulties in the US banking system due to the possible bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, investors do not rule out a slowdown in the pace of the Federal Reserve System's (FRS) rate hike. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a 0.25% increase in the rate is approximately 75% at the next Fed meeting on March 22. Previously, a 0.5% increase was expected, but this option is not even considered by forex market participants. The probability of the FRS keeping the interest rate at its current level of 4.75% is estimated at 25%. This has increased investors' interest in gold. The British pound strengthened in anticipation of a Bank of England rate hike to 4.25% from the current level of 4% at the meeting on March 23. The yen was supported by good economic statistics. Japan's trade balance deficit in February shrank to its lowest level since April 2022.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has remained almost unchanged. Investors were disappointed by the increase in United States Unemployment in February to 3.6% from 3.4% in January. The probability of a Fed rate hike (4.75%) by 0.5% at the March 22 meeting fell to 48%, compared to over 70% in the middle of last week. This weakened the US dollar on Friday, but it was still able to maintain growth against some currencies over the past week. The Swiss franc strengthened in anticipation of further tightening of monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank (1%) at its meeting on March 23. This was helped by the increase in the Switzerland Consumer Price Index in February by 3.4% y/y, with most market participants expecting inflation to decrease to 2.9% y/y. The Australian dollar weakened as investors decided that the Reserve Bank of Australia's 0.25% rate hike to 3.6% from 3.35% may not be enough given the inflation rate of +7.8% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2022. The New Zealand dollar also demonstrated a weakening, along with the Australian dollar. This was compounded by the decrease in New Zealand Manufacturing Sales by -4.7% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2022, after a growth of +2.6% in the third quarter. It is worth noting that on March 16, New Zealand GDP for the fourth quarter will be published, which theoretically, after the decrease in sales, may also disappoint investors. Cryptocurrencies fell in price amid difficulties in the operations of the cryptocurrency company Silvergate.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index slightly corrected down after 4 weeks of continuous growth. Investors are waiting for new economic information that will help predict the Fed rate change (4.75%) at the next meeting on March 22. According to CME FedWatch, the rate could be increased by 0.25% with a 69% chance. On March 10, significant data on the labor market United States Nonfarm Payrolls for February will be released. Natural gas in the US has risen in price due to the gradual reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas, which was damaged by a fire last year. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the back of an increase in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate to 4.75% from 4.25%. Recall that inflation in New Zealand in the 4th quarter of 2022 reached 7.2% y/y. Data for the 1st quarter of 2023 will be released on April 19. The weakening of the Japanese yen contributed to the preliminary data on the decline in industrial production in January. In addition, inflation in Tokyo in February significantly decreased to 3.4% y/y from 4.4% in January. Investors do not rule out that this may prompt the Bank of Japan to maintain a negative rate (-0.1%) at a meeting on March 10.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued its growth for the 4th week in a row, the increase was provoked after the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 4.75% on February 1. Investors do not rule out a further increase in the rate to 5.5% by the end of 2023. The Mexican peso strengthened on strong performance of the Mexico Gross Domestic Product and Current Account, which were better than expected. In addition, in the first half of February, inflation slowed down a little in Mexico. The weakening of the Australian dollar contributed to the materials of the February meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). He considered raising the rate by 0.5% but ended up increasing it by 0.25% to the current level of 3.35%. Investors do not rule out a pause in the tightening of the monetary policy of the RBA at the next meeting on March 7. Recall that inflation in Australia in the 4th quarter of 2022 reached 7.8% y/y. This is much more than the RBA rate.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to rise for the 3rd week in a row. Investors do not rule out a further increase in the Fed rate by another 0.25% - up to 5% from the current level of 4.75%. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of this at the Fed meeting on March 22 reaches 82%. The strengthening of the Swedish krona contributed to good data on unemployment. It contracted in January and hit a multi-year low of 6.5%. In addition, the krone continued to win back positively in the form of an increase in the Sveriges Riksbank rate on February 9 to a multi-year high of 3%. Note that on the same day, the Bank of Mexico unexpectedly raised the rate to 11%. This caused the peso to appreciate. The weakening of the yen was supported by a sluggish advance in the preliminary Japan Gross Domestic Product for the 4th quarter of 2022, as well as a record Japan Trade Balance deficit in January. Investors are awaiting the appointment of a new Bank of Japan Governor in the next few days. Earlier, the Japanese government nominated Kazuo Ueda for this post.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued its growth. It began shortly after the Fed raised the rate by 0.25% to 4.75% on February 1. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin and some other Fed representatives expressed the opinion that further rate hikes are needed. This strengthened the US dollar. An additional positive was the preliminary rise of the University of Michigan US Consumer Sentiment in February 2023 to a maximum since January 2022. The weakening of the euro contributed to the fall of European Union Retail Sales in December by -2.7% m/m, as well as relatively high pre-inflation in Germany in January (+8.7% y/y). The South African rand declined along with South Africa Mining Production (-3.5% y/y) in December.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. It has been trading in a narrow range for 2 weeks in a row. Investors are looking forward to the next meetings of the world's central banks: the US Federal Reserve System (February 1), as well as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England (February 2). The Australian dollar rose against the back of a new high in inflation in the 4th quarter of 2022, which amounted to +7.8% y/y. Investors are hoping for a more active rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (+3.1%) at the February 7 meeting. The strengthening of the Canadian dollar was facilitated by the increase in the Bank of Canada rate to 4.5% from 4.25% at the meeting on January 25. Natural gas in the US fell in price for the 6th week in a row. This was due to a decrease in demand against the backdrop of warm weather in the US and Europe. Natural gas is used for heating. The weakening of the yen could contribute to high inflation. In December 2022, it was +4% throughout Japan. In January 2023, inflation in Tokyo was even higher. It renewed its multi-year high and reached +4.4% y/y. Inflation across Japan for January will be released on February 23 and could be high.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investor activity throughout the week was not high due to the holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day) on Monday. Probably, investors are waiting for the publication of preliminary data of the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on January 26th. Last week, cryptocurrencies rose in price amid the relatively calm bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange and other crypto companies. The strengthening of the British pound was supported by good economic indicators on the labor market. Unemployment in November remained at the level of October (3.7%). The growth of the United Kingdom Consumer Price Index slowed down in December to +10.5% y/y. This is better than expected. Inflation in Japan in December (+4% y/y) turned out to be better than the forecast (+4.4% y/y). This supported the yen. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly on the back of lower retail sales in November. Negative for the South African rand was the decline in the economic performance of South Africa Mining Production, Gold Production in November, as well as the weak growth of South Africa Retail Sales.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell and hit a 7-month low. The change in the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m in December turned out to be negative (-0.1%) for the first time since May 2020. Investors believe that the beginning of the decline in inflation may limit further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. Accordingly, the US dollar was among the leaders of the weakening last week. The euro, on the contrary, strengthened due to the statement of the European Central Bank about plans to raise its rate by 1.25% during 2023. Now it is 2.5%. Recall that inflation in the EU for December in the 2nd assessment will be published on January 18. Preliminarily, it amounted to 9.2% y/y. The strengthening of the yen was supported by investors' expectations that the Bank of Japan would somehow tighten its monetary policy at the January 18 meeting. The strengthening of the Chinese yuan was supported by a good foreign trade performance in December (China Trade Balance) and relatively low inflation (+1.8% y/y). US natural gas quotes continued to decline for the 4th week in a row due to warmer weather, as well as due to reduced industrial production and demand for gas in Europe.

Over the past 7 days, the change in the US dollar index has been minimal again. As expected, the Fed raised the rate by 0.5% to 4.5% at the December 14 meeting. At first, this caused a negative reaction in the Forex market. Investors decided that the rate would stabilize around 5%. Thus, its growth in 2023 will be minimal despite the relatively high inflation of 7.1% y/y in November. At the end of last week, the dollar index won back almost all losses due to good US economic indicators University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and lower inflation in industry. The Swiss franc strengthened significantly due to the increase in the Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate to 1% from 0.5%. The South African Parliament refused to impeach the incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, the very discussion of this issue had a negative impact on the rate of the South African rand.